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Thomas Schelling, ‘The Role of Theory in the Study of Conflict’, RAND Research Memorandum, RM-2515-PR (13 January 1960), p. 28, cited in Dare Rowdy Rooksy (A Bradford Academy Novel) Publication date: August 1st 2020 Genres: Contemporary, Young Adult. The historian and the counterfactual, Violence, rationalité, incertitude: des tendances iréniques et apocalytiques dans l’étude des conflits internationaux, Pour une histoire des possibles: Analyses contrefactuelles et futurs non advenus, IR in France: State and costs of a disciplinary variety, Histoire et théorie des relations internationales, Pour une histoire des relations internationales, Le marchandage tacite et la solution des conflits, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations, The Macmillan Diaries, Volume II: Prime Minister and after 1957–1966, Atome, gloire et désenchantement: résister à la France atomique avant 1968, Une autre histoire des ‘trente glorieuses’: Modernisation, contestations et pollutions dans la France d’après-guerre, Macmillan, Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis, Awaiting Armageddon: How Americans Faced the Cuban Missile Crisis, Passions françaises et culture de Guerre froide, Mémoire vivante: Entretien avec Agathe Fourniaud, Penser la guerre: Clausewitz, Volume II: l’âge nucléaire, Interview with André Beaufre and Gilles Martinet, “La guerre atomique est-elle possible?”, Too Close for Comfort: Cases of Near Nuclear Use and Options for Policy, La mobilisation infinie: Pour une critique de la cinétique politique, https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3141707/Read-the-letter-from-former-nuclear-launch.pdf, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/opinion/trump-and-the-nuclear-keys.html?_r=1, http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/npt/revcon2015/statements/1May_France.pdf, http://issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/ISSF-Forum-2.pdf, http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB449/, http://www.asmp.fr/travaux/communications/2011_06_06_soutou.htm, http://www.ina.fr/video/CAF97049141/rencontre-gromyko-kennedy-video.html, http://www.ina.fr/video/CAF97027208/conseil-de-securite-video.html, http://www.ina.fr/video/CAF97027010/depart-u-thant-pour-la-havane-video.html, http://cache.media.education.gouv.fr/file/09_-_septembre/22/9/programmes_cycles_2_3_4_469229.pdf, http://cache.media.education.gouv.fr/file/42/56/7/4776_annexe1_280567.pdf, http://cache.media.eduscol.education.fr/file/lycee/70/4/LyceeGT_Ressources_Hist_1_05_GuerreFrConflictualites_184704.pdf, http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/38386/MWP_LS_2016_01.pdf?sequence=1, https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexteArticle.do;jsessionid=025DCB092EAA198A6EA37986D4516BC0.tpdila10v_3?idArticle=JORFARTI000019198568&cidTexte=JORFTEXT000019198529&dateTexte=29990101&categorieLien=id. Whether or not Kennedy’s judgement was actually impaired or not, the point remains that betting on the consistency of a man who relies on large quantities of medication with potential psychotropic side effects and on competing treatments by doctors who do not know what the other treatments are is a very risky bet. Pierre Marie Gallois, ‘Risques d’escalade au niveau nucleaire’, Revue defense nationale (November 1980, pp. Google Scholar. Overconfidence in the controllability of nuclear weapons creates danger. 118 72 88 In ‘Esprit’, there is an article by Stanley Hoffmann about the Franco-American relationship but it is about the post-Second World War period. Touze, Missiles et décisions, p. 120, my translation. "comments": true, Johnson, Dominic links overconfidence to the breakout of war in Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004)Google Scholar. Phone interview with Gabriel Robin, 17 July 2014. Dupuy, Jean-Pierre, foreword in Günther Anders, Hiroshima est partout (Paris: Seuil, 2008), pp. Reclaiming Native Truth. ; 98 188 At the end of the 1990s, while reviewing works published during this decade, Melvyn Leffler concluded similarly that they: ‘highlight contingency and inadvertence’. We support diverse voices by developing, producing and distributing innovative media about the Black experience and by investing in visionary content makers. Kennedy’s speech and the Crisis were on the front page of Le Figaro on 23 October 1962, for a brief analysis only. Moreover, the presence of correspondence with private citizens and with the mayors of France which did not call for or receive an answer suggests that expressions of fears would not have been removed simply because no one replied to them. Cambridge Core - Twentieth Century European History - Transatlantic Antifascisms - by Michael Seidman Gabriel Robin told the author that the ideas of his book were either ignored or quickly disregarded among his colleagues in the French foreign service. Chilton, Peter J. 1 project was funded by a generous grant from the . A Once and Future Greatness: Raymond Aron, Charles de Gaulle andthe Politics of Grandeur. Full text views reflects PDF downloads, PDFs sent to Google Drive, Dropbox and Kindle and HTML full text views. 113 Campus, Leonardo, I Sei Giorni che sconvolsero il mondo: La crisi dei missile di Cuba i le sue percezioni internazionali (Florence: Le Monnier, 2014), pp. : ref. 6 He considers the risk of escalation as coming from the Soviet Union only: that avoids the episode of the US F-102s described above as well as the limits of safety and of command and control on the US side during the Crisis. He displays an interesting form of confidence which cannot be reduced to control and treats the possibility of accidents as conditions of possibility of a fate that prevents disaster, but acknowledges that this cannot last forever. . 12 PHP Wrapper for the Flickr API. 108 Topcu, Sezin, ‘Atome, gloire et désenchantement: résister à la France atomique avant 1968’, in Céline Plessis, Sezin Topcu, and Christophe Bonneuil (eds), Une autre histoire des ‘trente glorieuses’: Modernisation, contestations et pollutions dans la France d’après-guerre (Paris: La découverte, 2013), p. 198 79–80 114 Touze, Missiles et décisions, p. 631, my translation. Google Scholar; Haine, Les Etats-Unis ont-ils besoin d’alliés, p. 216 and Holloway in Pelopidas, Global Nuclear Vulnerability (under review). 121 If you should have access and can't see this content please, The Cuban Missile Crisis: a nuclear order of battle, October and November 1962, Hits and myths: the essence, the puzzles and the Missile Crisis, The Cambridge History of the Cold War, Volume II: Crises and Détente, Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965, Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions, Computer-related accidental death: an empirical exploration, Nuclear Crisis Management: A Dangerous Illusion, Nuclear weapons scholarship as a case of self-censorship in security studies, Revisionist ambitions, conventional capabilities and nuclear instability: Why nuclear South Asia is not like Cold War Europe, Nuclear Mentalities? View all Google Scholar citations We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. This might have happened had he thought there was a serious risk of nuclear war. "languageSwitch": true 8 32 Google Scholar and 19 This mostly reflects a fear of conventional war in Europe and a fear centered on Berlin. Keller’s, Renata ‘Latin American Cuban Missile Crisis’, Diplomatic History, 39:2 (2015)Google Scholar. 117 Contemporary proponents of virtual nuclear deterrence include 93 Focused on applying a diverse background in public affairs consulting, he both manages and assists in projects to create social, environmental, and political change. The first wave focused on the US and a second one including a Soviet and Cuban perspective. 64 Maurice Vaïsse, ‘Une hirondelle ne fait pas le printemps’, in Vaïsse (ed. An exception is Georges-Henri Soutou in his public lecture at the Académie des Sciences Morales et Politiques (6 June 2011), available at: {http://www.asmp.fr/travaux/communications/2011_06_06_soutou.htm} accessed 16 May 2016. The historian and the counterfactual’, Security Studies, 24:3 (2015), p. 425 Maurice Vaïsse, foreword in Vaïsse (ed. 103 Macmillan, The Macmillan Diaries, pp. Laffer, Melvyn, ‘What do we “now know” ?’, The American History Review, 104:2 (1999), p. 501 He wrote: ‘You cannot be permitted to receive therapy from irresponsible doctors like M.J. who by forms of stimulating injections offer some temporary help to neurotic or mentally ill individuals … this therapy conditions one’s needs almost like a narcotic, [and] is not for responsible individuals who at any split second may have to decide the fate of the universe.’ Quoted in Laurence Leamer, ‘A Kennedy historian assesses the Dallek disclosures’, Boston Globe (2 November 2002). © 2020 webs.co.com. FitzGerald, Réachbha, ‘Historians and the Cuban Missile Crisis: the evidence-interpretation relationship as seen through differing interpretations of the Crisis settlement’, Irish Studies in International Affairs, 18 (2007), p. 202 Porter, Patrick, ‘Taking uncertainty seriously: Classical realism and national security’, European Journal of International Security, 1:2 (2016)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Google Scholar. Futter, Andrew He wanted to move beyond the ‘narrow horizons’ of diplomatic history, from the relations between diplomats to the relations between peoples. Total loading time: 0.377 Aron, Raymond, Thinking Politically, trans. ), L’Europe et la crise des missiles de Cuba, who notes that Aron only changed his mind about theater nuclear weapons in Europe because of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The International History Review: Vol. 127 31 Junior Chair of Excellence in Security Studies, Sciences Po. Watch our programs here. Sagan, Scott, ‘The problem of redundancy problem: Why more nuclear security forces may produce less nuclear security’, Risk Analysis, 24:4 (2004), p. 937 I am aware of the literature suggesting that Kennedy’s treatment did not affect his judgement; see 22 pub. Google Scholar. MOVIES By John Hospers Star 80 Star 80 is a product of producer-director Bob Fosse (All That Jazz), who imbues pub. 87 48 Le Guelte, Georges, Histoire de la menace nucléaire (Paris: Hatier, 1997), pp. However, publications around the 50th anniversary of the Crisis show that the ‘first wave’ remains hegemonic. d’Almeida, Fabrice and Rowley, Anthony, Et si on refaisait l’histoire (Paris: Odile Jacob, 2011)Google Scholar; and Joxe, Alain, Socialisme et crise nucléaire (Paris: L’Herne, 1973)Google Scholar; It is a domain having com extension. 50 Park, Bert, Ailing, Aging, Addicted: Studies in Compromised Leadership (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1993); and 96 Badalassi, Nicolas, Pour Quelques Missiles de Plus (Sarrebruck: éditions européennes, 2011), p. 140 241–2. Two landmark studies would be 639, my translation.). Cline, Ray S., ‘The Cuban Missile Crisis’, Foreign Affairs, 68:4 (1989)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Pelopidas, Benoît, ‘Renunciation: Reversal and rollback’, in Joseph Pilat and Nathan Busch (eds), Routledge Handbook of Nuclear Proliferation and Policy (London: Routledge, 2015)Google Scholar. CrossRefGoogle Scholar, my translation. 67 78 38 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. 126 Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, part III; Porter, ‘Taking uncertainty seriously’; Brian Rathbun, ‘Uncertain about uncertainty: Understanding the multiple meanings of a crucial concept in International Relations theory’, International Studies Quarterly, 51 (2007); Pelopidas, ‘We all lost the Cuban Missile Crisis’ and ‘The book that leaves nothing to chance’; Pelopidas, ‘Nuclear weapons scholarship’; Katzenstein’s notion of protean power as opposed to control power is already doing this with regard to the concept of power, as a result of his efforts at tracing the blurring of uncertainty and risk; see Peter Katzenstein and Stephen Nelson, ‘Uncertainty, risk, and the financial crisis of 2008’, International Organization, 68:2 (2014). Quoted in Robin, La crise de Cuba, p. 10, my translation. 1171–1178 21 See Google Scholar, emphasis added. Martin, Susan, ‘The continuing value of nuclear weapons: a structural realist analysis’, Contemporary Security Policy, 34:1 (2013), pp. Correspondence to: Benoît Pelopidas, Junior Chair of Excellence in Security Studies, CERI / Sciences Po, 56 rue Jacob, 75006 Paris, France. 40 Commission de publication des documents diplomatiques francais, Documents diplomatiques francais 1962 tome 2, 1er juillet–31 decembre (Paris: Imprimerie Nationale, 1999), p. 222. 1985]), pp. 6 On the responsibility of scholars focusing on nuclear weapons issues, see Ibid., p. 10. Chillaud, Matthieu, ‘IR in France: State and costs of a disciplinary variety’, Review of International Studies, 40:4 (2014), p. 809 As no active threats were reported recently by users, dominiqueandjameswalton.com is SAFE to browse. Trachtenberg, Marc, ‘Strategic thinking in America 1952–1966’, Political Science Quarterly, 104:2 (1989), p. 311 27-41. Garthoff, Raymond, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1989), p. 62 43 It is available at: {https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexteArticle.do;jsessionid=025DCB092EAA198A6EA37986D4516BC0.tpdila10v_3?idArticle=JORFARTI000019198568&cidTexte=JORFTEXT000019198529&dateTexte=29990101&categorieLien=id} accessed 27 May 2016. Ibid., p. 425, emphasis added, same phrasing, p. 430. Jean-Yves Simon-Michel, statement at the Main Committee I, 2015 NPT Review conference, available at: {http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/npt/revcon2015/statements/1May_France.pdf} accessed 16 May 2016, pp. Denver, Colo. office 303-442-3434. 84 3 Neustadt, Richard and May, Ernest R., Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers (New York: Free Press, 1988); Available at: {http://www.ina.fr/video/AFE86003852} accessed 16 May 2016, my translation. This banner text can have markup.. web; books; video; audio; software; images; Toggle navigation Dr Eugene Cohen, Kennedy’s long-term endocrinologist, warned JFK against the dubious practices of one of his doctors, Dr Jacobson, nicknamed Dr Feelgood, who would in 1975 be denied his authorisation to practice medicine, as early as November 1961. The passing of the last elite witness of the most dangerous nuclear crisis, that is, the ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’, and the current Trump administration only make this more salient. … Our army keeps the possibility of accident in its forecasts, in its equipment, in its behaviour.’ Later, he writes about ‘the fragility and precariousness [that nuclear weapons’] existence give the world, placed by them at the mercy of a miscalculation among many other imponderable factors.’ See Revue de Défense Nationale, 205 (August/September 1962), pp. 35 Google Scholar. Google Scholar, 372, 374. CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Available at: {http://www.ina.fr/video/CAF97049141/rencontre-gromyko-kennedy-video.html}; {http://www.ina.fr/video/CAF97027208/conseil-de-securite-video.html}; {http://www.ina.fr/video/CAF97027010/depart-u-thant-pour-la-havane-video.html}; accessed 7 December 2016. Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. 56 Leon also answers to Leon R Thomas, Leon Richard Thomas and Thomas Leon, and perhaps a couple of other names. Schlosser, Command and Control, p. 261, based on interviews with weapon designer Harold Agnew. 27–28 ), Le sens du futur (Paris: Éditions Universitaires, 1971)Google Scholar, p. 110, my translation. Google Scholar. 47 François-L. Ganshof (Paris: Hachette, 1953)Google Scholar. Frank, Robert, ‘Histoire et théorie des relations internationales’, in Robert Frank (ed. Le Guelte, Georges, Les armes nucléaires, mythes et réalités (Arles: Actes Sud, 2009), pp. de Beauvoir, Simone, Lettres à Sartre, Volume II: 1940–1963 (Paris: NRF Gallimard, 1990)Google Scholar. Vaïsse, Maurice, ‘France et la crise de Cuba’, Histoire, Economie et Société, 13:1 (1994). Narang, Vipin, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014), p. 3 for this article. 91 and 2 79 119 Google Scholar, quoting Russell Leng in part. 63 So dive in! (2011). Historians and the Cuban Missile Crisis: the evidence-interpretation relationship as seen through differing interpretations of the Crisis settlement, I Sei Giorni che sconvolsero il mondo: La crisi dei missile di Cuba i le sue percezioni internazionali, Lessons of October: Historians, political scientists, policy-makers and the Cuban Missile Crisis, Dean Acheson’s version of Robert Kennedy’s version of the Cuban missile affair, Testing Organisation Man: the Cuban Missile Crisis and, Taking uncertainty seriously: Classical realism and national security, Schelling’s Game Theory: How to Make Decisions, Risk and Blame: Essays in Cultural Theory, Luck, Fate and Fortune: Antiquity and its Legacy, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, The problem of redundancy problem: Why more nuclear security forces may produce less nuclear security, Normal Accidents: Leaving with High Risk Technologies, What if? 80–2. ), L’Europe et la crise des missiles de Cuba (Paris: Armand Colin, 1993); and the . Exceptions which fully recognise the features identified in the first section of this essay are Poirier, Lucien, Essais de strategie theorique (Paris: Les Sept Epees, 1982), pp. CrossRefGoogle Scholar; also Campbell Craig, ‘Reform or revolution: Scott Sagan’s Limits of Safety and its contemporary implications’, in Scott and Hughes, The Cuban Missile Crisis, p. 104. 44 Scott, Len and Smith, Steve, ‘Lessons of October: Historians, political scientists, policy-makers and the Cuban Missile Crisis’, International Affairs, 70:4 (1994), p. 683 On the difficulties of some of this scholarship to properly account for luck, see Benoît Pelopidas, ‘We all lost the Cuban Missile Crisis’, in Scott and Hughes, The Cuban Missile Crisis, pp. Vaïsse, Maurice (ed. One exception would be a textbook reviewed by Gabriel Robin in 1984, which argued that: ‘the crisis seems to bring the world on the brink of World War III’. Attributions of Responsibility for Terrorist Attacks: The Role of Group Membership and Identification Bertjan Doosje, Sven Zebel, Marieke Scheermeijer, Pauline Mathyi (pp. 42 persons, including Cleve Peter Osborne and Kisha Smallwood, lived here in the past. CrossRefGoogle Scholar. 300–301, 308–9 and Pelopidas, ‘Nuclear weapons scholarship’CrossRefGoogle Scholar. 16 Collective memory and international history, Routledge Handbook of Nuclear Proliferation and Policy, Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Era: Regional Powers and International Conflict, Bounding Power: Republican Security Theory from the Polis to the Global Village, The continuing value of nuclear weapons: a structural realist analysis, Deadly Dilemmas: Deterrence in US Nuclear Strategy, Nuclear deterrence in a world without deterrence, Atomic Anxiety: Deterrence, Taboo and the Non-Use of U.S. Nuclear Weapons, The only thing to look forward to’s the past, The Cuban Missile Crisis: Critical Reappraisal, On the Brink: Americans and Soviets Reexamine the Cuban Missile Crisis, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents and Nuclear Weapons, One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War, The politics of presidential medical care: the case of John F. Kennedy, Presidential Leadership, Illness and Decision Making, The Mortal Presidency: Illness and Anguish in the White House, Ailing, Aging, Addicted: Studies in Compromised Leadership, John F. Kennedy: An Unfinished Life 1917–1963, L’Italia nella Guerra fredda: La storia dei missili Jupiter 1957–1963, Pathways to nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union in October 1962. Google Scholar, 111, my translation. 269–270 Based on the memories of his son, Gallois never seems to have mentioned the Cuban missile crisis in conversations with his family. Scott, ‘The only thing to look forward to’s the past’, pp. Black Public Media is committed to a fully realized expression of democracy. For Camus: his op-ed in Combat (8 August 1945); Simone Debout, ‘Sartre et Camus face à Hiroshima’, Esprit, 239:1 (1998); Annie Kramer, ‘A l’aube de l’âge atomique “entre l’enfer et la raison”’, CISAC Honors thesis (Stanford University, 2013). 104 13 100 421–4, 430. McDermott, Rose, Presidential Leadership, Illness and Decision Making (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp. Google Scholar, 79. (book manuscript under review)Google Scholar. 94 In his case, Kennedy only (p. 639). et notes dissem. Published online by Cambridge University Press:  Richard Rhodes, ‘Absolute power’, New York Times Sunday Book Review (21 March 2014). Collective memory and international history’, The International History Review, 36:3 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Weart, Spencer, The Rise of Nuclear Fear (Harvard: Harvard University Press, 2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Dupuy, Jean-Pierre, Dans l’œil du cyclone (Paris: Carnet Nords, 2009), p. 313 Second, it challenges a widespread assumption of automaticity linking a fear-induced deterrent effect and the presence of nuclear weapons. CrossRefGoogle Scholar. All rights reserved. Haine, Jean-Yves, Les Etats-Unis ont-ils besoin d’alliés? Google Scholar. In any case, the kind of letter I was looking for would not have been either particularly offensive or easy to single out. Lebow, Richard Ned, Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. 326–336 52–53 Query parameters: { 14 80 131 McDermott, Rose, ‘The politics of presidential medical care: the case of John F. Kennedy’, Politics and Life Sciences, 33:2 (2014), p. 85 CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Dixit, Avinash, Skeath, Susan, and Reiley, David, Games of Strategy (New York: W. W. Norton, 2015), ch. Google Scholar, p. 160. 68 130 Dodge, Robert, Schelling’s Game Theory: How to Make Decisions (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012), ch. Google Scholar. Sagan, Scott, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993), pp. La vérité scientifique se détache de la conscience qui l'a élaborée puisque, à un certain degré d'approximation, elle vaut éternellement. Early on, strategist Alain Joxe made the same point in his 1964 essay, ‘La crise de Cuba’. 1992]), p. 44 CrossRefGoogle Scholar, 174. Fifteen permits were issued for work at this address. Sciences Po is a member of USPC. This website is estimated worth of $ 8.95 and have a daily income of around $ 0.15.

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